Asian League · resolved market
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbfec5bfa1ae3c70401658dad0fad8c1b513aa6429e7c62f8083e92d5e8c92af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 62c | 2,884$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.16 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 972.27$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 876.59$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.61 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 39c | 760.63$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -54%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 20c | 298.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 40c | 245$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 38c | 211.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 13c | 149.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 37c | 126$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Over | 30c | 98.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 60c | 87.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Over | 40c | 78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 72.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Over | 39c | 60.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 38c | 58.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 40c | 49.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed Over | 40c | 37.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Under | 68c | 27.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 62c | 24.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0356…5273backed Under | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.