Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdf5cb93bc18bf5a2b5aec84cd466eb0ba4e1b3309423182307b72cb0c3ed252
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,166$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…6e11backed Yes | 6c | 1,118$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 10c | 862.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd867…1256backed Yes | 6c | 419.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18d7…f54bbacked Yes | 15c | 327$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 289.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 12c | 273.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 75c | 183.7$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0c…74d7backed Yes | 25c | 156$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e1…072cbacked No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…9745backed Yes | 24c | 129$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…ed97backed Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…f11dbacked No | 80c | 104.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…8d58backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70da…382cbacked Yes | 13c | 96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494f…ca12backed Yes | 44c | 86.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b2…2ebabacked Yes | 22c | 83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…47acbacked Yes | 20c | 76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12db…e8e9backed Yes | 25c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…c191backed Yes | 22c | 69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…793fbacked No | 68c | 61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…6bbdbacked Yes | 24c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…3b81backed Yes | 24c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…7ecfbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe474…e400backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 50c | 44.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x818e…f07abacked Yes | 32c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedd3…1f26backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a4…fdeabacked No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Yes | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…bcd6backed Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23e…7aadbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…68fdbacked No | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb05a…6e29backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 41c | 26.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x430d…c4c2backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c88…6e2bbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18d…9c58backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…beddbacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc8…b26abacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…a61cbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…beccbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…7be4backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd1…3c76backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe87…ab3bbacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…9293backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96dc…e7d1backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2341…839abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f3…ec34backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68aa…b573backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x728d…332dbacked No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95c…ff4ebacked No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7d…3e0dbacked No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…d2c2backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 33°F or below on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.