Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x793a2d7100d6674f8a83fde51578462503229aa312269aa8665366ee7fee1468
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 8c | 516.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.77 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 5c | 437.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.98 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…fd02backed No | 58c | 415.64$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.11 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 63c | 392.89$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.24 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…50bbbacked No | 51c | 302.04$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…6e11backed No | 6c | 241.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.63 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 58c | 203.12$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 35c | 193$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…87bbbacked No | 52c | 152$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 22c | 117.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 114.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.78 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 30c | 109.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d7…2f30backed No | 65c | 106$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2db…f950backed No | 62c | 89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf813…163cbacked Yes | 59c | 79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e4…747dbacked Yes | 50c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x494f…ca12backed Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 39c | 73.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x818d…05fdbacked Yes | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 26c | 71.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…8be6backed Yes | 50c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf546…23b1backed No | 41c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8729…6098backed Yes | 38c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd4…17e0backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce80…7043backed Yes | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…b6a8backed Yes | 49c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999b…0162backed No | 41c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 41c | 46.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…d9d5backed Yes | 38c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…0a09backed Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe10c…819fbacked No | 50c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…e2edbacked No | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…2571backed Yes | 53c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…c02dbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68bb…3a64backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…46c2backed No | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…434fbacked Yes | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…be6fbacked Yes | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…f1aebacked Yes | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3998…4afebacked Yes | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…bffebacked Yes | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…dd20backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…f803backed No | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecf…3db7backed Yes | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5a…97c4backed Yes | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…fdbebacked Yes | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfafd…023cbacked No | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d2…8dfdbacked No | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa896…7f13backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da2…499fbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0363…4ba4backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffda…e443backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed Yes | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e1…6132backed No | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…32bcbacked Yes | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c00…71babacked Yes | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ab…143cbacked Yes | 59c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457c…ecfdbacked No | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd965…f837backed No | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…bf81backed No | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…0e8abacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7528…58a0backed Yes | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 33°F or below on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.