Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81a824894b24d683fff8eafeb2b81ff03234b69d77420335e4a6b18927dcc906
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 31c | 501.94$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.55 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 14c | 499.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.36 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 28c | 265.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.68 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 62c | 222.6$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.11 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 70c | 220.6$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.28 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 219.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.56 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 41c | 189.77$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 13c | 165.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.05 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 38c | 159.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…5244backed Yes | 17c | 158$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…de67backed No | 69c | 153$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 24c | 152.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.72 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 10c | 150$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 14c | 144.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.3 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 19c | 119.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.29 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9067…e242backed Yes | 9c | 116$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd965…f837backed Yes | 31c | 101$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd867…1256backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a70…7057backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x031c…3c41backed Yes | 27c | 88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc855…690dbacked No | 60c | 87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494f…ca12backed Yes | 27c | 80.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb393…9546backed Yes | 31c | 76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4e…80c5backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 19c | 73.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…cc6bbacked No | 73c | 72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa507…580ebacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…efefbacked Yes | 26c | 66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…a80cbacked No | 73c | 65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…d182backed Yes | 27c | 57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0946…e2a8backed Yes | 27c | 57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcf…2948backed Yes | 29c | 56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…b3c1backed No | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…de48backed Yes | 26c | 53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…32f0backed Yes | 40c | 52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…0dabbacked Yes | 40c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf935…0febbacked Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127c…03eebacked Yes | 35c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b2…fbf0backed Yes | 40c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…9b0ebacked Yes | 35c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0289…7b42backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dda…59debacked Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…998cbacked Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…6bc0backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…f9a3backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…28a4backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…0cd5backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd201…763cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…fdbebacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…3e29backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbb…3b43backed No | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3142…86cebacked No | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…300cbacked No | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…97acbacked No | 65c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…78cfbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cb…522dbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8f…4a39backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…7dc8backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6657…4070backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a7…7423backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…103dbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…5fa3backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…f665backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…ce12backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb7…c46fbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…721abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…43ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…2c06backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0bca…e3f0backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca30…20b3backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…e064backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…1573backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab5…7d55backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 33°F or below on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.