Premier League · resolved market
Millwall FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe2a1e512b0226c766d6b2b40c280c807d54e64d40ec44753f5abd11f05df107
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 1,359$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.44 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 1,185$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.92 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 141 | 38.3%54 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb9…bb3cbacked Over | 54c | 555.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +62%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 52c | 377$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.04 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 329.34$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.85 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ff…84d1backed Over | 47c | 220$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 58c | 108.27$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 40c | 106.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Over | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778f…7860backed Over | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 279 | 55.9%156 W · 123 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 60c | 70.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 54c | 68.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 49c | 59.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 49.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 54c | 48.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 57c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 51c | 45.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 59c | 44.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 41c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 53c | 37.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 51c | 32.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 52c | 25.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Millwall FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Millwall FC vs. Oxford United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Millwall FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Millwall FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Millwall FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Millwall FC (-1.5)Millwall FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.