NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe3183e82581b4d5362c80cb629b7d4595d50019bf11fe53ca3ea14593ea6b42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Knicks | 49c | 14,214$6,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,901.57 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Celtics | 51c | 11,170$5,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,455.34 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Knicks | 49c | 8,684$4,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,235.63 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Knicks | 49c | 8,100$3,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,937.65 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Celtics | 52c | 7,135$3,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,444.62 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed Celtics | 52c | 6,039$3,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,901.2 | 381 | 43%164 W · 217 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Knicks | 52c | 2,611$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.5 | 667 | 44.5%297 W · 370 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…8826backed Celtics | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Celtics | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Celtics | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 122 | 32%39 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Knicks | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Knicks | 52c | 924.1$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.53 | 259 | 39%101 W · 158 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Celtics | 50c | 802$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed Celtics | 50c | 800$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | +14.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Celtics | 53c | 700.74$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.35 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks | 47c | 616.01$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.32 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d4…ad01backed Celtics | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +13.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Knicks | 5c | 463.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Knicks | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Celtics | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Celtics | 53c | 380.17$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.74 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Celtics | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Celtics | 52c | 245.6$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.67 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Celtics | 52c | 199.93$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Celtics | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Celtics | 51c | 135.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Celtics | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 587 | 54.7%321 W · 266 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Celtics | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 248 | 55.6%138 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Knicks | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Celtics | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Knicks | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Knicks | 51c | 81.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Celtics | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Celtics | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Knicks | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Knicks | 48c | 24.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Celtics | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 258 | 51.6%133 W · 125 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Celtics | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)this page
- Celtics vs. KnicksCeltics won
- Over 204.5Over won
- Over 205.5Over won
- Over 206.5Over won
- Over 207.5Over won
- Over 208.5Under won
- Over 209.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.