Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe407b1984b5dbe08213c54cd79025d34fc39517a16c6abc8eb446280e0aef02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 526.4$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 471.58$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 9c | 249.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 15c | 206.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 201.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 13c | 189.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 38c | 155.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 149.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 132.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 129.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 128.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 42c | 123.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 46c | 116.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 42c | 115.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 49c | 112.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 59c | 107.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 107$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 28c | 98.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 88.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 74.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 65.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 62.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 52c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 40c | 49.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed No | 60c | 45.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 36c | 35.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 60c | 34.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 58c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 68c | 32.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…5ae7backed No | 62c | 27.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 75cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 17.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.