Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x146e4d79ca1afcab1c4aa3b4ef050412278aaddc894b537d730c101e836d091a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 398.92$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 27c | 278.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 259.16$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 9c | 197.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 25c | 160.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.51 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 160.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 154.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 77c | 139.24$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 121.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 63c | 120.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 119.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.61 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 72c | 92.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 90.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 17c | 85.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 25c | 82.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 36c | 82.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 44c | 55.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 65c | 55.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 24c | 46.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 53c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 40.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 31c | 38.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 52c | 38.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…5ae7backed No | 65c | 38.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 75cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 37.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 51c | 36.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…070fbacked Yes | 32c | 36.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a18dbacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 69c | 28.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 50c | 28.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 78c | 28.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 25.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 71c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 71c | 15.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.