TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Montana State Bobcats vs. Idaho State Bengals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Idaho State Bengalsof Montana State Bobcats, Idaho State Bengals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,332
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,332 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Montana State Bobcats56c4,519$2,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,530.6137441.7%156 W · 218 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Idaho State Bengals44c2,250$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26084147.4%399 W · 442 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Idaho State Bengals44c1,969$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.8512,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Montana State Bobcats54c1,173$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.422,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Idaho State Bengals46c794.86$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.585,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Montana State Bobcats55c503.18$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.433,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Montana State Bobcats46c476.37$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8193247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Idaho State Bengals47c430$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.9478052.2%407 W · 373 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e3b…4afdbacked Idaho State Bengals48c419.61$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.612138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Montana State Bobcats54c414.78$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.461,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Idaho State Bengals44c386.36$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.3679448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Idaho State Bengals48c314.2$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.984,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Montana State Bobcats57c310.56$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.021,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Idaho State Bengals44c299.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.992,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Idaho State Bengals44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.271,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Montana State Bobcats19c226.62$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.661,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Idaho State Bengals44c221$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.761,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed Idaho State Bengals80c210$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4264658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Montana State Bobcats53c202.13$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.132,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Idaho State Bengals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Idaho State Bengals72c162.95$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.343,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Idaho State Bengals66c142$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.771,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Montana State Bobcats22c141.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2187047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Montana State Bobcats18c136.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.394,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Idaho State Bengals44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6483350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Montana State Bobcats32c109.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9462140.4%251 W · 370 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Montana State Bobcats33c107.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.435,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x989a…afbcbacked Montana State Bobcats16c104.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6970349.6%349 W · 354 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed Idaho State Bengals68c95$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.414351.2%22 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Montana State Bobcats58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5035646.6%166 W · 190 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x586d…fb12backed Montana State Bobcats74c81.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2118557.8%107 W · 78 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Montana State Bobcats18c75.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.31,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Idaho State Bengals47c70$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.11,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed Montana State Bobcats54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.452353.5%280 W · 243 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Montana State Bobcats56c58.18$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8299045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Montana State Bobcats52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Idaho State Bengals67c47$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4949747.5%236 W · 261 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Montana State Bobcats35c45.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.942,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Montana State Bobcats35c37.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1857655%317 W · 259 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Idaho State Bengals43c31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6781528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31d7…42c1backed Idaho State Bengals74c20.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.397247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Idaho State Bengals75c20.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.141,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Montana State Bobcats57c17.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.047748.1%37 W · 40 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-17.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.