Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Montana State Bobcats vs. Idaho State Bengals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe4a53d003944d6d56daa0b6437e12047c0fbb79bdc857eaf6100ce82007a1cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Idaho State Bengalsof Montana State Bobcats, Idaho State Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Montana State Bobcats | 56c | 4,519$2,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530.61 | 374 | 41.7%156 W · 218 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Idaho State Bengals | 44c | 2,250$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Idaho State Bengals | 44c | 1,969$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.85 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Montana State Bobcats | 54c | 1,173$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.42 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Idaho State Bengals | 46c | 794.86$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.58 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Montana State Bobcats | 55c | 503.18$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.43 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Montana State Bobcats | 46c | 476.37$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.81 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Idaho State Bengals | 47c | 430$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.94 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3b…4afdbacked Idaho State Bengals | 48c | 419.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.61 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Montana State Bobcats | 54c | 414.78$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.46 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Idaho State Bengals | 44c | 386.36$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.36 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Idaho State Bengals | 48c | 314.2$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.98 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Montana State Bobcats | 57c | 310.56$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.02 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Idaho State Bengals | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Idaho State Bengals | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Montana State Bobcats | 19c | 226.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Idaho State Bengals | 44c | 221$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.76 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Idaho State Bengals | 80c | 210$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Montana State Bobcats | 53c | 202.13$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.13 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Idaho State Bengals | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Idaho State Bengals | 72c | 162.95$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Idaho State Bengals | 66c | 142$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Montana State Bobcats | 22c | 141.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Montana State Bobcats | 18c | 136.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Idaho State Bengals | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Montana State Bobcats | 32c | 109.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Montana State Bobcats | 33c | 107.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked Montana State Bobcats | 16c | 104.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 703 | 49.6%349 W · 354 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed Idaho State Bengals | 68c | 95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Montana State Bobcats | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…fb12backed Montana State Bobcats | 74c | 81.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Montana State Bobcats | 18c | 75.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Idaho State Bengals | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…7a77backed Montana State Bobcats | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 523 | 53.5%280 W · 243 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Montana State Bobcats | 56c | 58.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Montana State Bobcats | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Idaho State Bengals | 67c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Montana State Bobcats | 35c | 45.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Montana State Bobcats | 35c | 37.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Idaho State Bengals | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d7…42c1backed Idaho State Bengals | 74c | 20.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Idaho State Bengals | 75c | 20.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Montana State Bobcats | 57c | 17.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Idaho State Bengalsthis page
- Spread: Montana State Bobcats (-2.5)Idaho State Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.