Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe6a3fd35c4af20d3c1e7d06a5f09e05a740a8527d1026f772a77ea8794c1b8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- REKONIXof Natus Vincere, REKONIX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked REKONIX | 44c | 1,002$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.98 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed REKONIX | 42c | 915.96$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.26 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked REKONIX | 43c | 714$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.14 | 174 | 52.3%91 W · 83 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 476.59$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.42 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 439.66$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed REKONIX | 42c | 406.84$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.15 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed REKONIX | 44c | 206.2$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 184.19$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 178.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…bef4backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 178.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…f6c5backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09f…deffbacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f84…98f1backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 176.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 174.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked REKONIX | 39c | 153.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…a591backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 136.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked REKONIX | 43c | 97.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…ce77backed REKONIX | 47c | 90.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 75.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed REKONIX | 41c | 60.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…2998backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 32.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…a0a5backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 234 | 59%138 W · 96 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…2c55backed REKONIX | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92db…68d2backed REKONIX | 45c | 23.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group BNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX - Game 1 WinnerREKONIX won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.