Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x712c09346cc5c972fd6b8fdb043995ad1cbe01e5397dab49002e0f3481ce1d29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, REKONIX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 7,943$5,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.69 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 5,296$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.07 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked REKONIX | 25c | 2,796$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.04 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed REKONIX | 27c | 2,649$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.61 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…bcb7backed REKONIX | 29c | 1,810$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed REKONIX | 19c | 1,714$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.37 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked REKONIX | 20c | 1,679$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.04 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 1,374$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.38 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked REKONIX | 26c | 1,345$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.78 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed REKONIX | 26c | 1,337$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.53 | 259 | 35.5%92 W · 167 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed REKONIX | 17c | 1,250$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed REKONIX | 27c | 1,145$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.75 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed REKONIX | 26c | 1,100$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.5 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4a…8060backed REKONIX | 11c | 1,005$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.55 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed REKONIX | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed REKONIX | 27c | 991.69$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.83 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked REKONIX | 13c | 942.04$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed REKONIX | 28c | 911.34$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.18 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked REKONIX | 18c | 830.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.56 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…3e2abacked REKONIX | 27c | 819.99$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.89 | 300 | 41.3%124 W · 176 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…cb5bbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 801.27$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.64 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Natus Vincere | 79c | 728.76$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.04 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed REKONIX | 20c | 597.74$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.87 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked REKONIX | 26c | 500.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.24 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed REKONIX | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x853a…c128backed REKONIX | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed REKONIX | 29c | 499.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf991…3965backed REKONIX | 26c | 496.27$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.03 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 415.2$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked REKONIX | 12c | 414.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 395.13$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.59 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked REKONIX | 7c | 395$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed REKONIX | 25c | 390.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed REKONIX | 21c | 390$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked REKONIX | 26c | 371.23$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked REKONIX | 22c | 366.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 358.38$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.93 | 138 | 54.3%75 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 332.33$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 223 | 63.2%141 W · 82 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed REKONIX | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 291 | 43.6%127 W · 164 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed REKONIX | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked REKONIX | 27c | 240$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc182…1339backed REKONIX | 15c | 233.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 288 | 46.5%134 W · 154 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked REKONIX | 26c | 230$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…1f72backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 318 | 65.1%207 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 154.68$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed REKONIX | 13c | 146.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…4b19backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 144$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…cca4backed REKONIX | 27c | 140.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed REKONIX | 21c | 140.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed REKONIX | 17c | 127.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked REKONIX | 25c | 115$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed REKONIX | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked REKONIX | 17c | 75.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed REKONIX | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 207 | 38.6%80 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked REKONIX | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed REKONIX | 29c | 53.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e72…117abacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group BNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX - Game 1 WinnerREKONIX won
- Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5)REKONIX won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.