TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
REKONIXof Natus Vincere, REKONIX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$212,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$230,226

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,150 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7714…b814backed Natus Vincere77c18,353$14,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,141.1424153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed REKONIX25c18,039$4,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,524.2542650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Natus Vincere77c17,057$13,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,142.0334468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Natus Vincere75c13,941$10,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,513.0656955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Natus Vincere77c12,068$9,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,266.4734544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked REKONIX24c11,727$2,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,900.21,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Natus Vincere77c9,372$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,2001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere80c8,142$6,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,484.6896645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked REKONIX25c8,081$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,081.0889741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Natus Vincere76c7,146$5,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,402.4127153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed REKONIX24c6,444$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,887.81,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked REKONIX27c5,786$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,225.421,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9867…ea53backed Natus Vincere76c5,711$4,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,364.51450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Natus Vincere74c5,418$4,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,009.6119847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked REKONIX22c5,128$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,017.3325549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Natus Vincere79c5,000$3,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,95015848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Natus Vincere75c5,000$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,75049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed REKONIX24c5,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,80029042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed REKONIX23c4,508$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.3234051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed REKONIX24c4,396$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,349.568649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Natus Vincere77c4,007$3,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,096.8541351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked REKONIX19c3,974$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,204.711,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2690…4089backed REKONIX24c3,500$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed REKONIX20c3,093$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.511,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed REKONIX24c3,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.9915144.4%67 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked REKONIX19c2,605$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,102.841,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked REKONIX29c2,489$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.1941242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked REKONIX23c2,353$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.889749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed REKONIX22c2,294$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.212,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed REKONIX21c2,081$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.3358744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Natus Vincere78c1,993$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.6213851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked REKONIX38c1,769$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.81,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked REKONIX22c1,690$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.422,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Natus Vincere74c1,270$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.7956852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Natus Vincere78c1,262$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.3635151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed REKONIX20c1,250$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00029240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Natus Vincere77c1,223$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.7111960.5%72 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked REKONIX24c1,156$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.3729548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Natus Vincere6c1,150$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed REKONIX39c1,026$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.6756548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked REKONIX49c1,003$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.4327143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed REKONIX23c1,000$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked REKONIX26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74060646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked REKONIX24c987.13$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.2817146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed REKONIX24c947.32$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.6557449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked REKONIX32c859.67$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.751,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked REKONIX23c825.76$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.7648539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe584…9bb3backed Natus Vincere78c824$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.724654.3%25 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed REKONIX23c804.55$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.4554246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Natus Vincere73c768.66$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.4451364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed REKONIX43c746.99$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.5565647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed REKONIX27c740.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.986354%34 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked REKONIX18c731$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.997243.1%31 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf29…da00backed Natus Vincere79c709.61$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.3510751.4%55 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked REKONIX24c676.87$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.8585851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Natus Vincere78c676.42$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.4939550.1%198 W · 197 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked REKONIX60c661.2$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.6826956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bd5…8d10backed Natus Vincere51c600$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3055127.5%14 W · 37 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Natus Vincere71c599.99$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.021,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed REKONIX23c577.68$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.8174549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed REKONIX30c499.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.9980544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd95d…2ab5backed Natus Vincere70c499.99$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.995048%24 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a89…3e2abacked Natus Vincere77c468.73$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.9230041.3%124 W · 176 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed REKONIX23c462.35$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.831,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed REKONIX27c457.39$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.958356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c73…750abacked REKONIX25c386.19$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.1916328.8%47 W · 116 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-29.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Natus Vincere75c365.74$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.011,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed REKONIX31c358.06$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.0661745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdec9…b8abbacked Natus Vincere76c341$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.8414750.3%74 W · 73 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Natus Vincere78c339$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.4241050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Natus Vincere74c336.82$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.2522363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd991…c1dabacked REKONIX31c322.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.582944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Natus Vincere77c316$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.9786659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Natus Vincere80c313.36$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25021650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere68c309.79$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.961,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed REKONIX25c307.7$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7710546.7%49 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed REKONIX21c288.07$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.8116242.6%69 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf062…0257backed Natus Vincere70c286.94$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005131.4%16 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Natus Vincere75c280$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.614744.9%66 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d3…cdacbacked REKONIX23c280$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.946631.8%21 W · 45 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-28.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed REKONIX29c277.98$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.5835430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Natus Vincere61c271$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.231,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed REKONIX25c264.81$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.651,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked Natus Vincere70c250$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17545052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked REKONIX27c208$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.4469033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf592…b62dbacked Natus Vincere77c201.38$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.061936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Natus Vincere78c200$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.7537655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked REKONIX20c200$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16058250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b79…a5a8backed Natus Vincere79c194.58$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4111346%52 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Natus Vincere65c176.01$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.41,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked REKONIX23c174.73$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.211,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed REKONIX60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6748054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed REKONIX26c166.19$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.981,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked REKONIX32c145.63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.0313850%69 W · 69 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked Natus Vincere74c135.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10035461.3%217 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked REKONIX24c124$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2435032.3%113 W · 237 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Natus Vincere51c117.84$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7554648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed REKONIX27c104$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6824527.3%67 W · 178 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed REKONIX22c102.23$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.7718544.9%83 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed REKONIX24c101.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2829432.3%95 W · 199 L-19.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.