Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe724902e58ead79c407181c179830f2c055ffd15dc8de702466fc4d5216c5e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Over | 55c | 8,056$4,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,419.67 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed Under | 45c | 4,783$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,632.48 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…b76fbacked Under | 45c | 2,430$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.17 | 108 | 31.5%34 W · 74 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Under | 45c | 2,025$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.55 | 1,308 | 38.6%505 W · 803 L | -64.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Over | 55c | 1,466$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.08 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Over | 55c | 1,377$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.32 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 54c | 1,007$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.5 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed Under | 45c | 682.89$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.89 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2a…30edbacked Over | 56c | 489.99$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.4 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 592 | 48.3%286 W · 306 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Under | 45c | 353$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.15 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed Under | 45c | 326.66$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.66 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Under | 45c | 275.2$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.36 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8562…0a61backed Under | 45c | 264.44$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…3be7backed Under | 44c | 259.23$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.23 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e6…59dbbacked Under | 45c | 224.44$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.44 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…35a3backed Under | 45c | 83.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 166 | 47.6%79 W · 87 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 66c | 15.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2?this page
- Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5)Top Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group AscendTop Esports won
- LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 WinnerTop Esports won
- LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 WinnerTop Esports won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.