Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump issue 0 executive order in the week of October 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe7305335831f9631ddc00515dcddf11c3fecf02b0bfe48c45d0acfc15beddab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 15c | 3,078$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.21 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,253$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 73c | 639.96$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.73 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…37aabacked Yes | 45c | 620.64$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dae…a1bebacked Yes | 32c | 314.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 7c | 267.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.25 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 61c | 229.49$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.79 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ce16backed No | 23c | 205.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 55c | 202.22$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.22 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…7eecbacked Yes | 53c | 201.8$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0b…5e43backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…9008backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff8…68ebbacked Yes | 26c | 89.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2539…71a2backed No | 26c | 73.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 70.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6274…79aebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7583…fd28backed No | 76c | 21.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebe…34c9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +148%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 67c | 16.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump issue 0 executive order in the week of October 10?this page
- Will Donald Trump issue 1 executive order in the week of October 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 2 executive orders in the week of October 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 3 executive orders in the week of October 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 4 executive orders in the week of October 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 5 or more executive orders in the week of October 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.