Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbea8fbceb687d273c86a1a173f12912ab41186d3b0011619581faa8b098697bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,502 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa251…5df0backed Yes | 0c | 7,249$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed Yes | 24c | 1,926$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.05 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 76c | 671.04$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.53 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 77c | 584$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.28 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1a…9ac7backed Yes | 31c | 477.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 3c | 419.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 15c | 357$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…1f04backed No | 74c | 322.29$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 316.19$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 263.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 220$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 78c | 206$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 182.89$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 76c | 180.97$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 156.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 146.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 145.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 141.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 134.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 133.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 61c | 132$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 44c | 122.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 11c | 103.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 29c | 101.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 21c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 71c | 87.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 20c | 79.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 76.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 67c | 74.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…f3e4backed No | 73c | 71.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 25c | 71.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 21c | 68.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 29c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 76c | 65.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe4…3e65backed No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 64c | 63.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 77c | 63.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed Yes | 33c | 60.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 19c | 60.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…9ea3backed No | 65c | 58.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 21c | 56.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…4c9bbacked Yes | 32c | 55.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 28c | 54.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70f4…a54abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 49.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 47.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 26c | 45.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 77c | 44.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 36c | 44.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 26c | 42.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…fe21backed No | 78c | 42.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 72cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 41.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 75c | 37.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…a654backed No | 76c | 36.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 35.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 80c | 34.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 70c | 33.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 80c | 28.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 73c | 26.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…1aa6backed No | 68c | 20.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…0051backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 74c | 17.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 68c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 72c | 15.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.