Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50d7068a3c961de5012573ea635db0ad690d83f4f61a6acc4344d8590d1e1c3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,981 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 44c | 4,394$1,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,441.68 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 53c | 2,611$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8960…aa31backed Yes | 44c | 2,399$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…5086backed Yes | 44c | 2,367$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 56c | 2,255$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.04 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b5…3620backed No | 50c | 2,050$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf093…cff5backed Yes | 50c | 2,050$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…e3efbacked No | 56c | 1,201$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5412…0185backed No | 56c | 1,198$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308d…d747backed No | 56c | 1,188$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855f…99ccbacked No | 56c | 1,179$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 58c | 675.21$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.61 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 51c | 519.15$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.02 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…5df0backed Yes | 67c | 512.56$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 507$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 491.31$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.86 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 46c | 470$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.27 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 64c | 400$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.9 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…f11abacked Yes | 55c | 391.89$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 71c | 389.51$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.5 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 59c | 387.47$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.79 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 67c | 374.44$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.46 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 359.46$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6798…1bfdbacked No | 28c | 311.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 67c | 299.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.93 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 48c | 297.98$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.77 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 258.52$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 41c | 242.66$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.66 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…ed49backed Yes | 53c | 227.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 59c | 222.79$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.58 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 40c | 220$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 50c | 201.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 40c | 199.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.94 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 36c | 196.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.55 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 31c | 193.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.55 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 55c | 182.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 61c | 159$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 41c | 155$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 43c | 141.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 132.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 65c | 123.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 62c | 123.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504c…e5d6backed Yes | 73c | 122.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.2wins | -0.53per pick | 65cpaid | -84%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 41c | 120.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 47c | 117.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 29c | 114.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 43c | 111$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 50c | 108.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 49c | 107.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 52c | 100.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 51c | 99.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 44c | 93.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 41c | 91.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 50c | 90.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked No | 58c | 85.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 48c | 76.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed No | 61c | 73.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 73.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 71.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 68.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 38c | 64.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed Yes | 72c | 63.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 48c | 62.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 57c | 59.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 56c | 59.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 39c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 42c | 55.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 52c | 54.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 68c | 54.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…593dbacked No | 39c | 50.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 36c | 48.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 46c | 46.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 35c | 45.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…2805backed Yes | 31c | 45.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 44c | 45.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…e0f9backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes | 35c | 43.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 37c | 41.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 30c | 39.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449d…e576backed No | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.