MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbebe66cf00a48473759081f9c903fe5a25316b63eb11020948ec5a3f4d73d3d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Kansas City Royals | 31c | 6,400$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,983.99 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed New York Yankees | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 2,500$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked New York Yankees | 69c | 2,368$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.17 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Kansas City Royals | 31c | 2,165$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.65 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Kansas City Royals | 32c | 2,003$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.57 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 1,460$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.56 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 999.96$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked New York Yankees | 65c | 738.29$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.4 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 11c | 694.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Kansas City Royals | 33c | 376.21$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.21 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…0ed4backed New York Yankees | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked New York Yankees | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca22…96ecbacked New York Yankees | 66c | 363.64$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0409…b9a6backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 357.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f2…a661backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 357.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 55cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…0b10backed New York Yankees | 66c | 336.36$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 226$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed New York Yankees | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4318backed New York Yankees | 55c | 165.35$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Kansas City Royals | 45c | 165.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed New York Yankees | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed New York Yankees | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked New York Yankees | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed New York Yankees | 66c | 84.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed New York Yankees | 70c | 68.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Kansas City Royals | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked New York Yankees | 67c | 42.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked New York Yankees | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Kansas City Royals | 33c | 36.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed New York Yankees | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked New York Yankees | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…4c67backed New York Yankees | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed New York Yankees | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed New York Yankees | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.