Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbec80c3218a8bdb0793797fdeb378dcc627f3982f308f26f8e2ed0a0b6e8c8fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 351.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e0…5e9abacked Yes | 18c | 335.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 30c | 292.27$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 35c | 288.31$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.58 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 30c | 258.41$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 44c | 248.19$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.1 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…9434backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 174 | 24.1%42 W · 132 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 58c | 173.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed Yes | 58c | 122.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…431cbacked Yes | 55c | 63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…b6e8backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 34c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…0792backed Yes | 48c | 37.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 50c | 34.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36be…ea28backed Yes | 39c | 31.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…b278backed No | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Yes | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…88dabacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or below on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.