Tennis · resolved market
ITF Bali: Alexander Chang vs Keisuke Saitoh
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbed94afcea246d87b854455f3c07d26aeec508a893691cc8d283cf6c4e73a8fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alexander Changof Alexander Chang, Keisuke Saitoh
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Keisuke Saitoh | 53c | 2,409$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Alexander Chang | 47c | 2,262$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.19 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Alexander Chang | 29c | 599.95$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.96 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…9587backed Keisuke Saitoh | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Keisuke Saitoh | 34c | 399.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.93 | 223 | 46.6%104 W · 119 L | +15.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Keisuke Saitoh | 73c | 300.89$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.03 | 101 | 61.4%62 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…5858backed Keisuke Saitoh | 12c | 220.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 230 | 30.4%70 W · 160 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Alexander Chang | 31c | 219.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.35 | 472 | 52.1%246 W · 226 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Keisuke Saitoh | 58c | 209.09$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.62 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Alexander Chang | 55c | 207.55$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.55 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Keisuke Saitoh | 46c | 183.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Keisuke Saitoh | 70c | 160.46$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Alexander Chang | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Keisuke Saitoh | 45c | 128$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…3e8cbacked Keisuke Saitoh | 69c | 101.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 302 | 46.7%141 W · 161 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Keisuke Saitoh | 66c | 96.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Keisuke Saitoh | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alexander Chang | 55c | 91.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Alexander Chang | 30c | 79.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Alexander Chang | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 647 | 55%356 W · 291 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Alexander Chang | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Keisuke Saitoh | 71c | 56.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…0123backed Alexander Chang | 49c | 55.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Keisuke Saitoh | 69c | 53.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Alexander Chang | 31c | 52.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +223.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Alexander Chang | 26c | 46.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 568 | 27.3%155 W · 413 L | +23.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Alexander Chang | 54c | 46.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Alexander Chang | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Keisuke Saitoh | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Alexander Chang | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…acd4backed Keisuke Saitoh | 65c | 30.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Alexander Chang | 33c | 30.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…430ebacked Keisuke Saitoh | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Keisuke Saitoh | 70c | 27.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 205 | 66.8%137 W · 68 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…0ed5backed Keisuke Saitoh | 70c | 25.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Keisuke Saitoh | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 37.2%73 W · 123 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Keisuke Saitoh | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 247 | 40.1%99 W · 148 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.