World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf2b259eba8bda6da1fb6b5e320cf615cdc7fb07e65c42dff759d6c9619b293b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 53c | 1,307$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.44 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…5469backed Yes | 71c | 383.66$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 33c | 294.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 285.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 250.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 45c | 240$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…07d3backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 60c | 166.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 130$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 47c | 119.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 48c | 115.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 39c | 71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 64.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 63.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 71c | 55.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 55c | 54.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 47c | 52.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 45c | 51.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 47c | 40.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 40.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 69c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 66c | 31.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 56c | 27.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 27.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 76c | 26.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 50c | 23.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 70c | 22.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.