NFL · resolved market
Jaguars vs. Buccaneers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf2ecb2b64da976757a8a3bf62475fb1d912f7b3a097b3ec3c92694d5710e60e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof Jaguars, Buccaneers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Buccaneers | 41c | 3,320$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.98 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Jaguars | 59c | 2,453$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.71 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Jaguars | 60c | 1,060$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.3 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Buccaneers | 30c | 606$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.8 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Jaguars | 60c | 300$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Jaguars | 60c | 222$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Buccaneers | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Jaguars | 77c | 127$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Jaguars | 60c | 113.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…2f80backed Buccaneers | 40c | 106$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Jaguars | 60c | 103.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Buccaneers | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Jaguars | 60c | 99.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Buccaneers | 42c | 95.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Jaguars | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Jaguars | 70c | 69.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Jaguars | 61c | 56.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…30e6backed Buccaneers | 39c | 41.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bad…2683backed Jaguars | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.