NHL · resolved market
KHL: Severstal Cherepovets vs. Lokomotiv Yaroslavl
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf49b3bd88dc6ddcd3d7d3bde6975fa6dfc7b3c4e8fff0ae16563d7fd7d4d417
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lokomotiv Yaroslavlof Severstal Cherepovets, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 59c | 3,013$1,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.69 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed Severstal Cherepovets | 41c | 2,500$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b96…b053backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 58c | 2,200$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Severstal Cherepovets | 40c | 1,664$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.08 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 57c | 1,019$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.04 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Severstal Cherepovets | 40c | 493.13$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.25 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 42c | 474.87$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.44 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Severstal Cherepovets | 43c | 465.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Severstal Cherepovets | 43c | 465$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 329.12$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.44 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Severstal Cherepovets | 44c | 249.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 58c | 216.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.79 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 44c | 185.27$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 57c | 174.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 56c | 128.85$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Severstal Cherepovets | 42c | 128.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Severstal Cherepovets | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f74…4fccbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 42c | 100.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Severstal Cherepovets | 42c | 93.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 60c | 83.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 40c | 72.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Severstal Cherepovets | 52c | 47.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 58c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 53c | 39.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…88e8backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 54c | 37.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Severstal Cherepovets | 35c | 30.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb775…36f5backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 59c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 235 | 59.1%139 W · 96 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Severstal Cherepovets | 57c | 19.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.