Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf4fcbe11b97eec498f98b8b4486c6337c5589237d12eb0cbaebdbae0785d539
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 49c | 413.8$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.76 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 69c | 300.14$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.58 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 240.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 155.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 35c | 149.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 149.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 80c | 139.47$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 50c | 128$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 118.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 117.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 106$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 26c | 102.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 73c | 96.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 84.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 52c | 83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 52c | 80.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 67.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 51c | 55.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 64c | 54.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 27c | 53.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 69c | 51.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 34c | 51.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa2…7823backed Yes | 34c | 49.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 41c | 49.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 51c | 43.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 62c | 40.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes | 38c | 38.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 33.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 31.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 55c | 26.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 26.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 48c | 25.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2084…e384backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a7…19a3backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +185.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 23.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 54c | 21.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 67c | 17.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.