NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Magic: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf6ce5a885ec513b3ab47a07cc255ebeb56c0a3365321295cc550979860b490e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 49c | 3,333$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.15 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Under | 51c | 1,963$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.75 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…e4a6backed Under | 51c | 1,653$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 49c | 1,200$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 49c | 1,200$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 916.55$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 51c | 814$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.86 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 53c | 684.75$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.18 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 573.4$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.37 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 51c | 513.73$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 48c | 491$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.68 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 51c | 372.63$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.59 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee92…c6cfbacked Under | 52c | 151.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 149$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d53…061cbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d9…1b2cbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 53c | 72.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 241.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. MagicMagic won
- Heat vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Magic: 1H O/U 125.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Magic: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.