NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Magic: O/U 242.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ed2252c0fe7c99287af9e55cd8f6ec1cd1ab1b6dfac550503b673fb729bd2d8

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 5, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $56,827
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $57,682

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,827 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe405…bf91backed Under	51c	20,000$10,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,799.99	484	48.8%236 W · 248 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	12,956$6,177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,176.66	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Over	49c	6,192$3,034 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,034.18	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f9f…6ee5backed Under	53c	4,100$2,173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,927	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a61…92f4backed Over	47c	4,100$1,927 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,927	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	49c	4,008$1,964 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,963.92	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Under	51c	4,000$2,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,960	220	53.6%118 W · 102 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	49c	3,704$1,815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,815.08	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Under	54c	2,037$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$937.04	178	56.2%100 W · 78 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	49c	2,013$986 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$986.42	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Over	46c	2,000$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920	270	51.5%139 W · 131 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac1…a0f2backed Over	49c	1,957$959 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$958.99	110	51.8%57 W · 53 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Under	52c	1,923$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$923.08	137	48.9%67 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under	53c	1,887$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$886.79	369	43.4%160 W · 209 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under	54c	1,852$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$852.26	400	41.5%166 W · 234 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x535b…25a9backed Under	55c	1,820$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$820.35	125	55.2%69 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	54c	1,243$667 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$575.96	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Over	59c	1,152$682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$682.08	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Over	47c	1,050$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.42	356	51.1%182 W · 174 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	47c	772$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.66	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over	4c	611.94$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.42	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7119…45fabacked Over	52c	604.23$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.2	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	54c	513$277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.98	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over	48c	503.71$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.85	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Over	46c	499.98$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.99	73	58.9%43 W · 30 L	+4.3wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over	49c	400$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Under	51c	392.16$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.16	331	50.8%168 W · 163 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8aea…ec91backed Under	53c	390$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.3	53	49.1%26 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1c…a55abacked Over	49c	390$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.1	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd935…6029backed Under	52c	384$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.32	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.23per pick	51cpaid	+46.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fde…66b2backed Under	53c	381.13$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.13	57	56.1%32 W · 25 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35a6…ab4dbacked Under	55c	361$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.66	27	70.4%19 W · 8 L	+4.9wins	+0.18per pick	52cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x44de…e77fbacked Over	49c	360$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.4	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a51…bf14backed Under	52c	360$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.8	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+3.0wins	+0.19per pick	50cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed Over	50c	290$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	96	47.9%46 W · 50 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Under	54c	250$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over	46c	217.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under	52c	213.67$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.56	577	60.5%349 W · 228 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15a3…718ebacked Under	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	113	51.3%58 W · 55 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df8…3ee8backed Under	54c	186.15$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.63	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92fa…7d02backed Under	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Under	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	249	55%137 W · 112 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Over	49c	169$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.28	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	45c	153.51$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.08	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4556…2b35backed Under	51c	149.99$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.5	129	52.7%68 W · 61 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	52c	143$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.36	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	48c	143$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.36	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee7…0ba8backed Under	54c	139.35$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.35	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4085…583fbacked Over	48c	125$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-4.7wins	-0.20per pick	51cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Over	47c	103.61$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.02	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7ce…14b4backed Under	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	121	57%69 W · 52 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	380	48.7%185 W · 195 L	-12.0wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…dc8bbacked Under	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x48f8…9166backed Under	54c	98.15$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.15	171	45.6%78 W · 93 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc212…18b9backed Under	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	87	37.9%33 W · 54 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Over	47c	94$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.18	547	47.5%260 W · 287 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ed…6879backed Under	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+2.7wins	+0.14per pick	54cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7180…bdbabacked Under	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	156	57.7%90 W · 66 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Under	54c	64.81$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.81	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8477…d936backed Over	49c	63.86$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.29	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.35per pick	52cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	47c	63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.61	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a61…588bbacked Over	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	38c	60$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.79	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x370b…5009backed Under	54c	55.56$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.56	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-4.9wins	-0.09per pick	61cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b3b…a248backed Under	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Over	42c	52.27$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.14	185	54.1%100 W · 85 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd207…c366backed Under	58c	51.49$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.49	191	50.3%96 W · 95 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aba…0831backed Under	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	185	58.4%108 W · 77 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7972…930fbacked Under	54c	46.3$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.3	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	-12.3wins	-0.15per pick	63cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x6ca1…8becbacked Over	49c	40.8$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	44c	39.29$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.29	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Under	56c	39.29$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.29	288	56.9%164 W · 124 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7ffe…1bc9backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86f6…eafebacked Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9952…4165backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.19per pick	53cpaid	+35.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d12…31e0backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Under	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1caf…f649backed Under	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	48	58.3%28 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Over	47c	37$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.39	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e8e…1ef0backed Under	54c	29.63$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.63	99	54.5%54 W · 45 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	48c	29.18$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe425…9405backed Under	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb261…f3a0backed Over	47c	22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.5wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d37…51e7backed Under	63c	20.63$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.63	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+2.1wins	+0.27per pick	61cpaid	+49.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	539	51.6%278 W · 261 L	+20.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x668a…e8e1backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Magic: O/U 242.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event