TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Heatof Magic, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$400,575
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$401,537

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $400,575 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Magic51c313,696$159,892 inLost-$159,892.2525248.4%122 W · 130 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Heat49c115,555$56,622 inWon+$58,933.0587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Heat50c85,185$42,693 inWon+$42,492.51,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Heat49c30,686$15,036 inWon+$15,649.7159347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Heat48c23,135$11,122 inWon+$12,012.692,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Heat51c20,000$10,200 inWon+$9,80051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat48c12,501$6,055 inWon+$6,445.969,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Heat50c10,000$5,000 inWon+$5,0001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Heat49c10,000$4,900 inWon+$5,1002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Heat50c5,938$2,969 inWon+$2,96915952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Heat49c3,003$1,486 inWon+$1,516.962,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Magic49c2,222$1,089 inLost-$1,088.7828850.3%145 W · 143 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Heat52c2,000$1,040 inWon+$96072241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Heat53c1,332$706 inWon+$626.0824051.3%123 W · 117 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat49c1,212$600 inWon+$612.122,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe3…f118backed Heat53c578.28$306 inWon+$271.79540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic46c465.07$216 inLost-$216.224,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1375…4c69backed Heat54c370.37$200 inWon+$170.3711839.8%47 W · 71 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Magic48c208.33$100 inLost-$1008645.3%39 W · 47 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Heat51c200$102 inWon+$9829458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Heat51c196.08$100 inWon+$96.081,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Heat52c192.31$100 inWon+$92.3136143.5%157 W · 204 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed Magic51c149.99$76 inLost-$76.59647.9%46 W · 50 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Heat53c132.08$70 inWon+$62.0881845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Heat49c102.04$50 inWon+$52.043,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat48c100$48 inWon+$524,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e7…85a1backed Heat50c100$50 inWon+$5019556.9%111 W · 84 L+20.0wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Heat50c99.22$50 inWon+$49.2248740.7%198 W · 289 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked Magic49c70$34 inLost-$34.317444.3%77 W · 97 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Magic48c58.33$28 inLost-$2811840.7%48 W · 70 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Heat52c55.48$29 inWon+$26.632,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Heat49c47.95$23 inWon+$24.4550239%196 W · 306 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Heat49c27$13 inWon+$13.773,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Heat55c22.87$13 inWon+$10.299336.6%34 W · 59 L-11.0wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-17.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.