NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfa71cf9aa85a0b654f3a45e698648c4c7019209487dff6df812c006d44ef74f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Magic, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Magic | 52c | 46,024$23,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,939.57 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Magic | 49c | 40,000$19,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,600 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Celtics | 51c | 30,000$15,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,700 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…371bbacked Celtics | 50c | 28,804$14,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,304.18 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Celtics | 48c | 15,000$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,799.99 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 49c | 14,806$7,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,571.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Magic | 48c | 10,864$5,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,214.64 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Celtics | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Magic | 50c | 9,975$4,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,987.56 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Celtics | 48c | 8,000$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,160 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Celtics | 50c | 3,400$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Celtics | 49c | 3,277$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.85 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 43c | 2,466$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.96 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Celtics | 49c | 2,020$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.2 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Celtics | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Celtics | 66c | 1,689$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.36 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Magic | 49c | 1,678$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.52 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Celtics | 51c | 1,465$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.85 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…9a51backed Celtics | 51c | 943.14$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…ffa8backed Magic | 50c | 942$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Magic | 51c | 931$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.79 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics | 48c | 757.51$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.19 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Magic | 47c | 748$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.56 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Celtics | 49c | 685$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.55 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Celtics | 49c | 615.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.78 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Celtics | 49c | 612$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Magic | 52c | 586$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.72 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Magic | 49c | 449$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Magic | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc318…447abacked Magic | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Magic | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Celtics | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Magic | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…1d8ebacked Magic | 50c | 196$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…c511backed Celtics | 50c | 183$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Magic | 54c | 165.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…3cd9backed Magic | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Magic | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Magic | 49c | 91.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Celtics | 49c | 89.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Magic | 52c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e4…6c67backed Celtics | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Celtics | 46c | 70.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…7ff5backed Celtics | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…7b85backed Magic | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Magic | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Celtics | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…e3f7backed Celtics | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +204.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Magic | 52c | 46.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…d0e3backed Celtics | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…3ca6backed Magic | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…61edbacked Magic | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Magic | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Magic | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Magic | 67c | 34.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Magic | 49c | 33.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…94a4backed Magic | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…7037backed Magic | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…ed1dbacked Magic | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…28a7backed Magic | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…6df5backed Celtics | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Celtics | 52c | 27.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Celtics | 50c | 26.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…a43fbacked Magic | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…7a7dbacked Magic | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f9…a802backed Magic | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d1…2581backed Magic | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)this page
- Celtics vs. MagicCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Magic: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 226.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.