Mls · resolved market
Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfda1d8daf6e75846cd35e5663b56528b3e7d29616769a6ccec7b910c423929a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Over | 51c | 3,784$1,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.71 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 1,801$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.66 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 1,798$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.09 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 49c | 1,590$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.79 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…a6babacked Over | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 37c | 342.22$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.49 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 16c | 186.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 15c | 137.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…ca3ebacked Under | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Over | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 106 | 12.3%13 W · 93 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 48c | 97.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 49c | 79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 56c | 69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 50c | 60.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 54c | 37.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 52c | 36.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 51c | 25.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b11dbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: Austin FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: Houston Dynamo O/U 1.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Houston Dynamo won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-2.5)Houston Dynamo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.