Mls · resolved market
Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe0827b7584e17126bf9fa2c1bb01857326249c7cf7c4e36b1011ca5c23608fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Under | 46c | 23,076$10,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,645.93 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 12,738$6,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,782.54 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Over | 54c | 5,315$2,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444.78 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.88 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e5…9105backed Over | 54c | 3,704$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 2,953$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.8 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Over | 54c | 2,700$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 45c | 2,500$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.08 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 45c | 2,500$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.91 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 2,108$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.03 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…3dd2backed Under | 47c | 1,060$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 54c | 922.47$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.39 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 44c | 769.26$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.47 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 58c | 752.96$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 54c | 547.92$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.89 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Over | 53c | 495.84$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.05 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 62c | 475$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.5 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Over | 54c | 240$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Over | 54c | 239.3$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.52 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 37c | 226.16$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 53c | 201.75$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 44c | 135$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 45c | 122.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 54c | 117$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 54c | 104.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 101.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf15e…80b5backed Over | 54c | 96.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 53c | 84.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 54c | 74.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Over | 54c | 72.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…6be6backed Over | 55c | 53.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 54c | 53.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 54c | 50.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 43.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 55c | 42.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 53c | 39.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443b…e8bbbacked Under | 44c | 38.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked Over | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 66c | 34.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 39c | 34.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Over | 55c | 33.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbb…3ed1backed Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 47c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 61c | 27.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Over | 54c | 27.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 54c | 26.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 67c | 26.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 47c | 23.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…3320backed Under | 48c | 23.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 71c | 22.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 45c | 22.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Over | 54c | 22.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Under | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Over | 54c | 21.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Over | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: Austin FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: Houston Dynamo O/U 1.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Houston Dynamo won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-2.5)Houston Dynamo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.