Mls · resolved market
Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cc54babe42596217f944bdfc82bfb5b792042dd1d9287e9e2d0aa543fe02862
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 26c | 7,357$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,420.22 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…a6babacked Over | 69c | 4,962$3,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,417.92 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 68c | 4,000$2,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.97 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 2,951$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.45 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 62c | 1,576$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.41 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 37c | 1,038$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.17 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 32c | 872.09$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.07 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 31c | 473.5$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.08 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 69c | 306.69$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 48c | 285.65$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Under | 68c | 271.22$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Over | 32c | 240$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Over | 32c | 220.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 31c | 219.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe821…3128backed Under | 49c | 204.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 68c | 202.95$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 69c | 158.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 32c | 153.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90fe…b7b8backed Under | 68c | 152.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 31c | 137.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 65c | 135.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 31c | 98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 32c | 87.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 32c | 78.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 32c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 31c | 75.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 31c | 70.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 32c | 69.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 49c | 51.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 69c | 48.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 31c | 41.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0aa…7a60backed Over | 32c | 38.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 36c | 35.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbb…3ed1backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 69c | 28.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 80c | 27.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 61c | 26.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 74c | 25.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 72c | 22.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: Austin FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: Houston Dynamo O/U 1.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Houston Dynamo won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-2.5)Houston Dynamo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.