Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike 0 countries in November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfeabe3a92cd49d5a44d0235e8beed93859c951d21f52748a095dfb5fbe713fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 0c | 18,135$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8648…2241backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,859$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…29abbacked Yes | 1c | 8,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…687ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,815$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Yes | 2c | 2,955$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30df…51d7backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…90c7backed Yes | 1c | 2,132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…5b86backed Yes | 4c | 1,603$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1503backed Yes | 3c | 1,486$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…6dd7backed Yes | 3c | 940.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 1c | 807.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862b…745abacked Yes | 3c | 793$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…8145backed Yes | 2c | 516.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…534ebacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…935cbacked Yes | 3c | 339$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4027…ac7fbacked Yes | 4c | 275$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e56…4398backed Yes | 4c | 236.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec0…6d2abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…7fb8backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike 0 countries in November 2025?this page
- Will Israel strike 1 country in November 2025?No won
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in November 2025?Yes won
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in November 2025?No won
- Will Israel strike 4 or more countries in November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.