Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc01b39629a217f230ee00e151d18d8b68fc207656f085f7c7e1e21a53db30adc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Yes | 42c | 100,000$41,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,971.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed No | 58c | 31,516$18,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,236.62 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 61c | 25,000$15,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,750 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 58c | 24,863$14,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,431.9 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 39c | 18,607$7,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,256.61 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 58c | 9,791$5,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,112.2 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 6,169$3,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,563.7 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked No | 58c | 4,810$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 59c | 3,372$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.74 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed No | 58c | 2,355$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked No | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 60c | 1,508$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.57 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…ef6bbacked No | 60c | 1,071$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 3c | 980.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 58c | 972.35$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.39 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 58c | 926.64$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.21 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 39c | 580.3$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.32 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 42c | 540$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 56c | 299.98$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 41c | 240$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…5e6cbacked No | 58c | 142.86$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 59c | 122.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d7…c5f3backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…920cbacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…1335backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e5…bff4backed Yes | 46c | 108.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…610ebacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 34c | 69.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 21c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2609…3e72backed No | 57c | 55.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5263…52ccbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fd…41c1backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…a236backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb91…f766backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…8921backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe59…32c2backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…ed14backed Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 41cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2664…53f8backed Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…3d78backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3009…d675backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked No | 59c | 23.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-11-01?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-11-01?Yes won
- Will FC St. Pauli vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.