Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc074881acd4254082c1c4fee2d3ef7c82ce971c3e390517c520748f0b7371e00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 26c | 3,473$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.35 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 73c | 1,947$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.68 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 77c | 600$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed Under | 21c | 485.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 69c | 434.1$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.1 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 18c | 243$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 19c | 156.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Over | 75c | 134$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 78c | 108$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 72c | 101.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 66c | 69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 20c | 68.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 72c | 55.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Over | 78c | 43.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 71c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Over | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)New York City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.