Mls · resolved market

New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x824fe6f21c67fd9c3e769c10ce3546ee01b97d88b8194d8609ece22590376a45

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: May 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,133
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,330

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,133 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Mls
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc2fb…610cbacked Under	59c	1,845$1,089 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$756.61	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	74c	1,618$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$417.18	1,444	36.8%532 W · 912 L	-12.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over	41c	1,585$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	190	44.7%85 W · 105 L	+9.4wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Over	35c	1,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	-5.7wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Under	65c	898.65$584 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$314.65	90	52.2%47 W · 43 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over	40c	699.97$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.99	66	31.8%21 W · 45 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over	26c	598.07$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.5	53	37.7%20 W · 33 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	74c	494.25$364 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.58	871	54.6%476 W · 395 L	+34.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over	30c	436.06$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.26	989	45.4%449 W · 540 L	-23.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	60c	323.61$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.52	3,012	43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L	-29.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	59c	316.37$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.06	1,301	51.2%666 W · 635 L	-19.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Over	41c	300$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Over	40c	300$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked Under	60c	300$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc02a…b43fbacked Over	40c	250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Over	41c	242.68$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.5	88	53.4%47 W · 41 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ca…117abacked Over	42c	237.07$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	112	44.6%50 W · 62 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	68c	231$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.36	820	44.5%365 W · 455 L	-16.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Under	65c	230.77$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.77	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	62cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over	41c	209.36$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.84	66	25.8%17 W · 49 L	-8.1wins	-0.12per pick	38cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	68c	198.1$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.9	783	44.4%348 W · 435 L	-30.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over	41c	194$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.54	328	48.8%160 W · 168 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	74c	165.98$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.15	461	56.2%259 W · 202 L	+13.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Under	59c	150$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.5	126	61.1%77 W · 49 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over	25c	138.3$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.11	168	53.6%90 W · 78 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under	60c	118$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.28	915	53%485 W · 430 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	40c	108$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	1,262	45.2%571 W · 691 L	-28.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.56	923	46.6%430 W · 493 L	-9.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed Under	60c	100$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+12%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under	59c	100$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41	98	48%47 W · 51 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26f2…1761backed Over	34c	88.24$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-2.7wins	-0.25per pick	61cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over	20c	84$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.16	802	49.8%399 W · 403 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over	25c	80.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.29	967	56.8%549 W · 418 L	+73.1wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over	26c	76.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.75	294	60.5%178 W · 116 L	+36.5wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+34.2%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Over	41c	75.51$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.96	190	52.1%99 W · 91 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6af…b5efbacked Over	41c	73.17$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	109	50.5%55 W · 54 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	27c	69.6$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.79	311	58.5%182 W · 129 L	+27.0wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under	59c	65.3$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.77	108	48.1%52 W · 56 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Under	77c	64.94$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.94	63	41.3%26 W · 37 L	-4.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Under	59c	59.14$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.25	121	46.3%56 W · 65 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under	59c	52.46$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.46	186	51.6%96 W · 90 L	+11.2wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	22c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	362	47.2%171 W · 191 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15cf…4d9bbacked Under	59c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.5	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.7wins	+0.19per pick	59cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	31.5%17 W · 37 L	-5.8wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	32c	48.72$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.69	472	40.7%192 W · 280 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	40c	38.76$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.65	734	38.1%280 W · 454 L	-7.5wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under	58c	31$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.02	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Under	59c	28.44$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.66	81	29.6%24 W · 57 L	-10.9wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Under	63c	25.8$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.45	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	59cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa923…6704backed Over	40c	25.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	74	56.8%42 W · 32 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over	41c	25.45$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.43	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Under	60c	22.17$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.87	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under	59c	22$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.02	96	52.1%50 W · 46 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6444…672ebacked Under	60c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	65cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc5f…cf7cbacked Under	60c	19.18$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.67	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Under	59c	17.05$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.99	104	50%52 W · 52 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5this page
New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)New York City FC won
Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)New York City FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event