Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b0f66cf94d5c251c6d9117abcc8a61d9229f7809aa178ff2ae3051d39d7eb83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 51c | 5,733$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,793.27 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 52c | 4,639$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d95…fe91backed Under | 56c | 3,154$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 53c | 2,879$1,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.45 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 46c | 1,386$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.75 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,314$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.31 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 51c | 972.31$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…09cabacked Over | 39c | 794.36$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 72c | 688.84$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.35 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 8c | 682.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 54c | 599.22$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.66 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 51c | 513.83$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.05 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 44c | 509.06$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.86 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 465.75$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.77 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 43c | 393.9$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.52 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 45c | 390.83$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.02 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e0…826dbacked Over | 53c | 380$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 45c | 345.75$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.08 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 35c | 299.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 46c | 292.59$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.19 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 37c | 192.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.95 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 65c | 183.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba84…26efbacked Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 151.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…f0f2backed Over | 51c | 134.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 131.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 63c | 131$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 68c | 126.03$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 64c | 125.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 36c | 107.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 64c | 107$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 39c | 105.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 56c | 105$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…a708backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 49c | 97.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 38c | 94.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 54c | 93.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 47c | 82.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 63c | 78.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 63c | 77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 47c | 74.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 37c | 73.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 44c | 73.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 52c | 69.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 54c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 49c | 51.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…edd3backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 46c | 42.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over | 57c | 39.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 71c | 39.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 48c | 33.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 58c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Over | 45c | 23.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 55c | 21.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x807a…3be2backed Over | 58c | 20.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ad…2dccbacked Over | 61c | 19.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 69c | 18.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)New York City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.