Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 84°F or higher on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc074e173976816f0ad99bed2c03e6c2104cde4e405db7a08842ff84be6384c45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 21c | 870.76$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.97 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 542.21$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 478.19$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 57c | 468.67$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.39 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed Yes | 6c | 304.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 298.01$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 62c | 289.55$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.78 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 30c | 266.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 34c | 252.6$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 54c | 244.8$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.69 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 56c | 217.91$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.4 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 76c | 216.13$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 191.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 175.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 76c | 154.78$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 140.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 72c | 139.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 36c | 133.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 69c | 117.19$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…f20bbacked Yes | 33c | 116.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 96.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 40c | 93.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 93.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f71…79a6backed No | 72c | 81.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 35c | 79.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 43c | 76.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 68c | 71.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 70.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 62.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 73c | 60.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 38c | 59.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 41c | 59.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 48c | 57.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 29c | 54.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b85abacked No | 55c | 51.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 62c | 44.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…67b0backed No | 63c | 38.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 51c | 37.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 62c | 36.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 53c | 34.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 68c | 32.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 73c | 32.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 66c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 65c | 29.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 64c | 29.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 38c | 29.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…66f8backed No | 49c | 26.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 65c | 22.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 62c | 22.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 63c | 19.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 56c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 18.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed No | 60c | 16.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 64c | 16.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…014fbacked No | 69c | 14.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 84°F or higher on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.