Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca509abbff1bb3852b1c22ed9dbfcef755d61bb9c0f615b1c88ab8c6c8d681fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 693.61$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.22 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…1e16backed No | 70c | 490.5$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 446.44$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 57c | 397.6$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.54 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 340.02$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 65c | 268.34$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.11 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 37c | 187.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 73c | 158.76$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 157.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 147.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 46c | 140.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70f…4306backed No | 68c | 134.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 132.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 56c | 128.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 38c | 107.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…30f7backed No | 67c | 106.27$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 46c | 106.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 94.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 37c | 88.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 30c | 85.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 43c | 82.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 35c | 80.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 55c | 69.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 61c | 66.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 46c | 66.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 43c | 62.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 25c | 58.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…f20bbacked Yes | 41c | 58.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 59c | 56.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 25c | 54.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 56c | 52.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 51c | 52.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 50.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 45.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d3…2909backed Yes | 37c | 44.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 31c | 44.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 57c | 41.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 31c | 38.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 66c | 36.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 33.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 78c | 32.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 57c | 31.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 41c | 30.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 29.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 37c | 29.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 50c | 28.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 66c | 28.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…8c8bbacked No | 54c | 24.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8a…90debacked Yes | 58c | 23.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf69a…90f7backed Yes | 46c | 23.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 54c | 23.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 49c | 22.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…ac3ebacked No | 67c | 21.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 65c | 21.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…36d1backed No | 63c | 19.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 55c | 19.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed No | 55c | 18.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 61c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 84°F or higher on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.