MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc07ec999e0467441591ae34a64354d163fbe0bd0af8192e9c749c533a268e469
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 10,339$4,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,354.39 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 9,868$5,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,216.79 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 1,054$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.23 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 1,000$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.35 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 695.02$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.89 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 34c | 336.17$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.41 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 291$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 820 | 42.6%349 W · 471 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 233.68$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 229.48$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 145.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 137.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Chicago Cubs | 31c | 135.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Chicago Cubs | 24c | 105.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 86.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 21c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Chicago Cubs | 31c | 79.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 67.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 34.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 22.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.