TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,442
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,333

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,442 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82a0…33a1backed Pittsburgh Pirates4c1,187$49 inLost-$49.42718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick12cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates28c660.6$188 inLost-$188.058,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Chicago Cubs71c600$423 inWon+$17758352.1%304 W · 279 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates29c340.99$97 inLost-$97.325,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Chicago Cubs65c279.08$181 inWon+$97.734,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates13c276$37 inLost-$36.8412037.5%45 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Pittsburgh Pirates20c251.03$50 inLost-$49.6434139.9%136 W · 205 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs76c178.18$136 inWon+$42.325,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs77c177.51$137 inWon+$40.484,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates35c114.25$40 inLost-$40.12,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates34c102.94$35 inLost-$3568942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs66c102.94$68 inWon+$356,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Pittsburgh Pirates18c99$18 inLost-$17.8213345.9%61 W · 72 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs71c80.01$57 inWon+$23.212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs67c62.46$42 inWon+$20.3111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad99…dbabbacked Chicago Cubs67c60.6$41 inWon+$2013048.5%63 W · 67 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Pittsburgh Pirates19c60.12$11 inLost-$11.4263954.5%348 W · 291 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates34c60$20 inLost-$20.42,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Chicago Cubs66c48$32 inWon+$16.411,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Chicago Cubs65c30.44$20 inWon+$10.651,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs56c17.9$10 inWon+$7.8710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Chicago Cubs68c14.75$10 inWon+$4.721,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.