MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d47bd02c9424f7e39143419458ed2e0c765631fccaaecaf067bbc9c7e8cb4eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $494,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $609,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $494,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 65c | 239,824$155,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83,938.51 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 40,364$13,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,967.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 74c | 36,900$27,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,596.04 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 76c | 2,281$1,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.06 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 1,694$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 78c | 1,350$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.96 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 34c | 1,236$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.58 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 68c | 904$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 12c | 846.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 34c | 817$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.22 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 80c | 484.11$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 22c | 344$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 34c | 323.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.54 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 34c | 220.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 22c | 210$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 34c | 142.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.37 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Over | 37c | 112.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Under | 73c | 101.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 34c | 94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 67c | 85.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 73c | 80.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…fa96backed Over | 37c | 68.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 17c | 67.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 63.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Over | 65c | 60.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 25c | 57.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…b7d4backed Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 55c | 50.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…87b5backed Under | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Over | 61c | 28.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea53…e1ebbacked Over | 36c | 27.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Under | 38c | 27.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Under | 73c | 25.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…f703backed Under | 65c | 21.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…a713backed Under | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c7…216abacked Under | 64c | 17.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 74c | 16.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Under | 75c | 15.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.