MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3586bbe43d82840959d1be13b98f379c3b5bb0d997e90b765428116cb9cc713b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 57,777$27,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,644 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 53c | 12,771$6,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,768.85 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 53c | 10,457$5,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,542.06 | 323 | 51.7%167 W · 156 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 53c | 9,708$5,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,145 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 8,863$4,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,696.44 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 53c | 4,226$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.67 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 53c | 2,867$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.71 | 324 | 51.9%168 W · 156 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 53c | 2,075$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.18 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 48c | 1,695$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.29 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 1,558$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.09 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 53c | 1,024$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.72 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…0f3dbacked Under | 58c | 1,001$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.01 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.0wins | +0.40per pick | 50cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 987.99$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.6 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 54c | 850$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 55c | 573.28$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.99 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 54c | 566$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.64 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 38c | 546$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.96 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 49c | 420$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 54c | 314$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.56 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 300.39$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.21 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 239.15$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.14 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 45c | 201.42$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…ef21backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 40c | 189.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 184.93$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Over | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 47c | 172.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 1,139 | 42.7%486 W · 653 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 23c | 161.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 140$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Over | 53c | 129.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 40c | 113.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Over | 47c | 97.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 56c | 89.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c3…13e5backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd6…811bbacked Over | 54c | 72.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0216…377dbacked Over | 54c | 71.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 48c | 59.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 59c | 58.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 54.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under | 63c | 47.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 57c | 45.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…1b08backed Over | 54c | 43.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 32.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 54c | 32.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Over | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 44c | 31.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 55c | 30.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 55c | 27.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Over | 54c | 27.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Over | 54c | 26.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 25.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 53c | 24.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 53c | 22.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Under | 46c | 21.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 48c | 20.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 57c | 18.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.