College Football · resolved market
Spread: Fresno State (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc08f418a52f833d3d5c37a7887c2c039d49db03a9e0bcc29bcbc676f8bde3eb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fresno Stateof Fresno State, Miami (OH)
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Fresno State | 48c | 2,671$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.47 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Miami (OH) | 53c | 2,454$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.73 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Fresno State | 51c | 995$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.55 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Miami (OH) | 50c | 704$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.39 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fresno State | 44c | 679$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.24 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Miami (OH) | 52c | 519$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.48 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Miami (OH) | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Miami (OH) | 49c | 300$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.86 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Miami (OH) | 55c | 152$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fresno State | 51c | 150$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Miami (OH) | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Miami (OH) | 49c | 89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Miami (OH) | 46c | 70.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Fresno State | 49c | 51.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Fresno State | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Fresno State | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Fresno State | 46c | 48.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Miami (OH) | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Miami (OH) | 54c | 43.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Miami (OH) | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Fresno State | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…2afcbacked Fresno State | 44c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Fresno State | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Miami (OH) | 55c | 27.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Fresno State | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Fresno State | 46c | 24.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…4492backed Miami (OH) | 73c | 15.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Fresno State (-6.5)this page
- Miami (OH) vs. Fresno StateFresno State won
- Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State: 1H MoneylineFresno State won
- Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State: O/U 40.5Under won
- Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State: O/U 41.5Under won
- O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Fresno State (-4.5)Fresno State won
- Spread: Fresno State (-5.5)Fresno State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.