College Football · resolved market
Spread: Fresno State (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dda985d07cd10da45a37844dfb32e32c41455a6e5db19df954759f990fe0380
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fresno Stateof Fresno State, Miami (OH)
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Miami (OH) | 52c | 40,000$20,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,700 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Miami (OH) | 51c | 30,063$15,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,231.36 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Fresno State | 51c | 30,000$15,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,700 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Fresno State | 48c | 20,210$9,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,441.02 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Fresno State | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fresno State | 49c | 19,401$9,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,894.47 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Miami (OH) | 49c | 12,846$6,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,294.53 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Miami (OH) | 51c | 11,058$5,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,637.84 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Fresno State | 50c | 7,500$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Fresno State | 48c | 5,693$2,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,934.97 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Fresno State | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Miami (OH) | 51c | 4,573$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.07 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Fresno State | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Miami (OH) | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.99 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Miami (OH) | 52c | 3,348$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.81 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Fresno State | 48c | 3,038$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.64 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Fresno State | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Miami (OH) | 51c | 1,825$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.66 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Fresno State | 48c | 1,048$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.86 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fresno State | 48c | 730$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.6 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Fresno State | 51c | 606.96$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.51 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Miami (OH) | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Fresno State | 48c | 273.55$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.25 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Fresno State | 49c | 252.1$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…040abacked Fresno State | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Miami (OH) | 56c | 217.27$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.47 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Miami (OH) | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2d96backed Miami (OH) | 51c | 165.82$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Fresno State | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Fresno State | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Fresno State | 49c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Fresno State | 49c | 109$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…dffcbacked Miami (OH) | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Miami (OH) | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Fresno State | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…07f8backed Miami (OH) | 51c | 56.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Fresno State | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Fresno State | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…f34fbacked Miami (OH) | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Fresno State | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Miami (OH) | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Miami (OH) | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Miami (OH) | 51c | 27.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Fresno State | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…fdcebacked Miami (OH) | 51c | 26.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a346backed Fresno State | 50c | 25.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Fresno State | 49c | 23.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Fresno State | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Miami (OH) | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…79a8backed Miami (OH) | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Fresno State (-5.5)this page
- Miami (OH) vs. Fresno StateFresno State won
- Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State: 1H MoneylineFresno State won
- Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State: O/U 40.5Under won
- Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State: O/U 41.5Under won
- O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Fresno State (-4.5)Fresno State won
- Spread: Fresno State (-6.5)Fresno State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.