NFL · resolved market
Dolphins vs. Panthers: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc092c757b7e05e2842dcd971283e97396a8bdaca9ade9593561f94eb94b76aa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 51c | 41,408$21,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,266.8 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 49c | 27,749$13,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,164.33 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Over | 48c | 22,579$10,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,741.16 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 1c | 4,054$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 55c | 3,696$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.96 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Under | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 52c | 1,983$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.16 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Under | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…2e5dbacked Under | 52c | 1,130$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Over | 45c | 832.59$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.59 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 51c | 830.07$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.34 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 53c | 594.46$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.49 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 4c | 414$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb158…3ef7backed Over | 49c | 390$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b15…fddcbacked Over | 49c | 381$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7440…f3d1backed Over | 49c | 374$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26a…6d6ebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Under | 50c | 74.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Over | 48c | 53.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f68…0e4bbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Under | 52c | 47.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Under | 52c | 37.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a45…36dcbacked Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dolphins vs. Panthers: O/U 44.5this page
- Dolphins vs. PanthersPanthers won
- Dolphins vs. Panthers: O/U 42.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Panthers: O/U 45.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Panthers: O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Dolphins (-1.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.