NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc09aec9aa1749c20804100b58bef37ab1b4ed404685fb2303317ab5f220483ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Knicks, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bucks | 49c | 17,842$8,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,125.62 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Knicks | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,099.93 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Knicks | 51c | 5,125$2,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,616.79 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Knicks | 51c | 1,500$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 47c | 1,450$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.03 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks | 51c | 1,393$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.16 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Knicks | 52c | 1,212$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.24 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Knicks | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Knicks | 52c | 468.28$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.16 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bucks | 49c | 435.68$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.2 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…9305backed Knicks | 54c | 278.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Knicks | 51c | 227.87$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.43 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 48c | 192$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.91 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Knicks | 52c | 144.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Bucks | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Bucks | 46c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Bucks | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Bucks | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Bucks | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Bucks | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…7037backed Bucks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…a766backed Bucks | 51c | 38.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…6407backed Bucks | 52c | 37.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…73b7backed Knicks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Knicks | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d72…a88dbacked Bucks | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9847…1fe9backed Bucks | 51c | 28.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bucks | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa89…2f1bbacked Bucks | 50c | 22.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…287cbacked Knicks | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…5a18backed Bucks | 51c | 20.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb7…faf0backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473d…942abacked Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +51%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec9…458fbacked Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…8492backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…6e95backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…bcf6backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…fb60backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3dc…8784backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d1…a3cabacked Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…191cbacked Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…93acbacked Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae21…f485backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)this page
- Knicks vs. BucksBucks won
- Knicks vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.