NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f76cabc223c375beec1d3e60de382cd0a437e8e25afd70b99955f497d5d616e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x660d…2e08backed Over | 51c | 4,528$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,227.53 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…01b0backed Under | 52c | 4,332$2,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,246.91 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 52c | 3,530$1,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,835.3 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 3,100$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.8 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 50c | 771.7$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.88 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Over | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927a…4eaebacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 51c | 420$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…40d2backed Over | 51c | 389.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.73 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Over | 51c | 203.92$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 48c | 187.92$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.72 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 48c | 145.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Over | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…caddbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Under | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 57.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 51c | 55.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…0b44backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907f…ae52backed Over | 51c | 26.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ca…fd12backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5this page
- Knicks vs. BucksBucks won
- Knicks vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.