Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0bbe0a81d609a832bdb1fca77c464f3ba3204a839743e057bf8452deb8d7641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 211$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 201.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 199.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc90…6c55backed No | 53c | 188.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 37c | 150.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 108.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 105$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc09c…682ebacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 47c | 98.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 21c | 86.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 74c | 86.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 84.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 19c | 84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 80.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 37c | 80.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 79.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…2508backed Yes | 45c | 75.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 68c | 74.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 48c | 72.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 65c | 61.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes | 50c | 57.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 57.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 56.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 41c | 51.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…3538backed Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…12cebacked Yes | 34c | 44.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 54c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 36c | 40.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…06fbbacked No | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 47c | 36.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 66c | 35.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 41c | 33.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 53c | 28.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…bc87backed No | 56c | 27.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9d…02f8backed Yes | 45c | 26.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…d6ccbacked No | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 59c | 25.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 63c | 24.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…7d58backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 60c | 21.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 18.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 64c | 18.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.