Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0cdefeeaf06c95d51289ef8c6471343d42f0e5df0b9aae468cb116931e6daf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed No | 78c | 382.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 12c | 367.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 34c | 301.17$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 175.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 24c | 171.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.77 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 38c | 166$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 72c | 152.47$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 144.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 139.1$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 120.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 118.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 105.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 60c | 95.36$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 20c | 83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ae…bcc7backed Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521f…80cdbacked Yes | 78c | 63.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 61.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 49c | 60.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 63c | 48.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 65c | 44.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 33c | 42.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 74c | 39.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 52c | 38.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 37.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 55c | 36.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 35c | 36.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 56c | 34.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Yes | 61c | 32.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 37c | 27.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 26.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed Yes | 39c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeab…9851backed No | 63c | 25.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 77c | 25.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 56c | 22.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 22.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 52c | 20.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 67c | 19.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.