Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc158fc0e6c82434c9a2b74bae1cd8b9d5517b00264381df1141332a39b828663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 482.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 6c | 375.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 9c | 317.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 198.48$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 27c | 165.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 7c | 152.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cae…d2aebacked Yes | 11c | 116.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 25c | 116$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 78c | 111.23$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 86.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 16c | 74.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 70.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 21c | 51.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 79c | 41.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 26.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314b…4681backed No | 75c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.