Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x553b644e9ef8be0f0b1dbd5f57776f0a9199287ea58f4f340f6d065ddc7ceb54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,090$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.69 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed No | 11c | 512.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 32c | 460.24$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.14 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 457.12$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 73c | 425.32$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.66 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 422.24$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 330.04$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 313.03$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 299.98$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 269.92$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.81 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 67c | 267.67$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.04 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 251$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 9c | 226.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 206.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 40c | 203.61$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.74 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 200$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 186.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 186.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 34c | 184.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.04 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 176.05$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.37 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fe42backed No | 61c | 173.01$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 69c | 170.01$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 61c | 166.6$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 162.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.19 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 42c | 159.22$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.58 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 45c | 145.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 140$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 47c | 139.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 130.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 128$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 52c | 119.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 69c | 117.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 112.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…b9edbacked No | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 11c | 105.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 93.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 90$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 89.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 41c | 86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 33c | 80.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 35c | 79.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 79.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 55c | 77.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 24c | 75.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 73.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 71c | 70.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 39c | 69.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 32c | 64.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 26c | 63.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 28c | 63.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 34c | 62.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 61.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 60.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 60.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 72c | 60.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 59.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 46c | 55.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 34c | 55.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 55.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 40c | 50.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…6485backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 59c | 49.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 35c | 49.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 30c | 47.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 47.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 42c | 46.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…ec99backed No | 73c | 43.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 34c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 42.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 33c | 42.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 61c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 41.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 61c | 40.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 39.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…60f9backed No | 70c | 39.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 28c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 37.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8a…74b1backed No | 73c | 37.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed No | 53c | 37.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 48c | 36.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 35.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 53c | 35.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.